THE DANGER OF DEADLOCK
By DICK MORRIS
Published on DickMorris.com on March 5, 2012
Printer-Friendly Version If Romney, Santorum, and Gingrich split the remaining primaries and caucuses - even if Romney wins most of them - we will not have a nominee until the summer and may not have one until the convention in late August.
In that case, kiss our chances of beating Obama good-bye!
With a majority of the delegates to be chosen through proportional representation, Romney would have to win virtually all of the winner-take-all states and do well in the others to get the nomination before the convention in late, late, late August.
If Santorum or Gingrich upend Mitt in even a handful of key states, we will have a deadlock.
Here's how it stacks up.
• Let's assume the best case for Romney: He wins these winner-take-all states: ND (28 delegates), Vt (17), Virgin Islands (9), Guam (9), Puerto Rico (23), Illinois (69), DC (19), Md (37), Wisc (42), Ct (28), Del (17), RI (19), Ind (46), WV (31), Neb (35) losing only Pa (72) to Santorum and Ga (76) and NC (55) to Gingrich. • And then assume that Romney "wins" these proportional representation states but has to split the vote with the other three candidates: Alaska (27), Idaho (32), Mass (41), Ohio (66), Va (49), Wyo (29), Kan (40), Haw (20), NY (95), Me (24), Ore (28), Ky (45). Assume that Romney "loses" these proportional representation states but still gets his share of the delegates: loses to Newt: Ark (36), Alab (50), Miss (40), La (46). Loses to Santorum: Okla (43), Tenn (58), Col (26), Minn (40), Mo (52).
Then, in that case, here's how the delegate total would stack up on May 22nd:
Romney = 837
Santorum = 332
Gingrich = 336
Paul = 127
With 1,144 needed to nominate a candidate. We would be well into May without a nominee.
• Then, let's assume that Santorum and Gingrich win Texas (155 by proportional representation) but Romney gets his proportional share (a third of Texas' delegates are chosen on winner take all. Assume Newt wins them). Then assume Romney and Santorum split Iowa (28) and Mitt wins the proportional representation battle in Washington State (43). Still, no majority for anyone.
It would not be until June 5th that a nominee would emerge if Romney wins the winner-take-all states of California (172), Mont (25) NJ (50), SD (28), and Utah (40) and won the proportional state of NM (23). At that point, Romney would have 1,250 delegates, about a hundred more than he would need for a majority.
Waiting until June 5th for a nominee against an incumbent president is an unacceptable risk.
But what if Romney loses just a handful of these states? It would throw the convention into deadlock. Nobody would have a first ballot majority and this internecine warfare would drag on until the convention itself.
If we are to avoid a deadlock, we have to hope one candidate or another wins them all. And that probably, at this stage, means Romney. View my most recent videos in case you missed them!
Don't Let Obama Choose Our Nominee - Dick Morris TV: Lunch Alert! 1940: When Britain, Liberals, & Democrats Took Over The GOP - Dick Morris TV: History Video! How Obama Sends Oil Soaring And The Dollar Crashing - Dick Morris TV: Lunch Alert! The Path To The Nomination - Dick Morris TV: Lunch Alert! What Michigan Means - Dick Morris TV: Lunch Alert! Subscribe to Dick's Newsletter Other Useful Links
DickMorris.com
Follow Dick on FACEBOOK
Follow Dick on TWITTER
See Dick's YouTube Videos | 
Sign up at DickMorris.com to get Dick’s breaking thoughts on the most critical events of the day.Please forward this email and help us spread the word! To Advertise with DickMorris.com Click Here
About Dick Morris
Dick Morris is well known for his insightful and hard-hitting commentary on the FOXNews channel. With his wife, Eileen McGann, Dick has written 14 books, including 10 NY Times best-sellers. Together they pen almost daily columns for their website www.DickMorris.com, the New York Post, Newsmax, the Hill Magazine and many other publications. Domestically, Morris has handled the winning campaigns of more than 30 Senators and Governors, including President Bill Clinton and Republican Senate Majority Leader Trent Lott. Internationally, he has piloted the successful campaigns of the president or prime minister of Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, Uruguay, Kenya, Hungary, Poland, Taiwan, and Japan.
Morris’ and McGann’s latest book is Revolt!: How to Defeat Obama and Repeal His Socialist Agenda – A Patriot’s Guide.
Related Links:
DickMorris.com
Follow Dick on FACEBOOK
Follow Dick on TWITTER
See Dick's YouTube Videos
|
No comments:
Post a Comment