Erickson, Buchanan: Four Days
Inbox
x

Daily Events HumanEventsDaily@email.humanevents.com

11:01 AM (2 hours ago)

to me

If you are on a mobile device or cannot view the images in this message view this email in your web browser.
To ensure future delivery please add HumanEventsDaily@email.humanevents.com to your address book or safe sender's list.

Fridays with Erick Erickson

12.30.11

	Today's Sponsor

In four days, Iowans will go to the caucuses. It is not like going to the polls to vote. It is an intensely personal, democratic process.

The voters in Iowa will show up at a school hall, a town hall, or a local civic center, elect presiding officers, hear speeches from campaign surrogates, whisper with other voters, then write down their choice on a piece of paper to be counted by hand.

It is a long process. Child care has to be arranged in advance. Weather must be consulted. Meals must be consumed.

All of that means it is rather difficult to figure out who will actually go to the caucuses. It means it is rather difficult to poll. Organization matters. Ground game matters. The fundamentals of campaigning matters.

What we know is that poll trends are reliable. In Iowa, Newt is going down. Ron Paul is starting to go down. Rick Perry continues a slow and incremental increase. Rick Santorum is surging. Mitt Romney holds steady.

Iowa whittles the field. It does not pick the nominee. That's South Carolina's job. In four days, we don't know who will be in the top three. Probably Romney. Probably Paul. Then a toss up between Gingrich, Perry, and Santorum. In five days, we will know who is out of money and out of time.

After a year of covering the Republican Presidential Primary, let the games begin with one cautionary note. According to Gallup, 42% of Americans disapprove of Barack Obama's job performance today. At this time headed into Bill Clinton's re-election, the same number disapproved of his job performance. Of course Bill Clinton had economic numbers Barack Obama can only lust after.

—Erick Erickson